What we will see on June 11th 2009

Joy of Joys, for some reason Vegas will allow us to wager against Russ Ortiz to lose without having to risk and arm and a leg to bring back a few bucks; there's a mistake. Russ, someone stole my treadmill and replaced it with an all you can eat gift card to Dunkin Donuts, Ortiz has not fared all that well over his career against these Cubbies. The injury to Aramis Ramirez, who kills Ortiz, is a significant subtraction from the lineup, but not one that justfies a line of just -138. The other day we saw CC Sabathia around -200 over the Rays and David Price, this is a larger mismatch than that was. Granted the Cubs are not playing great ball right now, but at a time like this I'm quite thankful because it allows me to get a line like this against a team as flawed as the Astros.

I've been out of school for a while now, but I still haven't forgotten this very basic rule: Tim Redding + Jayme Moyer = over 9.5. I recall watching Tim Redding shut down the Phills, in philly, just a year ago as the home team pounded outs right at fielders inning after inning, I'm not going to role the dice expecting the same tomorrow. The Phills are one of the best offenses in the league and they are going to see a Mets squad that is hoping to stretch Tim Redding a bit after their pen got a decent amount of work in this evening. Flipping the table for a moment, I'm not sure that Jayme Moyer has recorded an out against the Mets in his career. This lineup as an OPS of greater than 1.000 against the aging lefty (granted plenty of damage has been done by Carlos Delgado who will be out tomorrow) and the Phills, like the Mets, will hope to get their starter through at least 6 tomorrow. I like the chances of the Mets scoring early and scoring often, give me two plays in this battle of the cream of the AL East, NYM -101 and the over.

What is there to like about Gavin Floyd? Nothing at all, is the answer. What is there to like about the White Sox lineup? Less than nothing, is the answer to that question. So, why, may I ask, are the first place Tigers only a -115 favorite tomorrow with Edwin Jackson on the hill? Hell, who knows, but why ask so many questions when there is money to be made. Edwin Jackson was at one point considered the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and slowly but surely he is showing us why. Young Jackson has the 4th hardest fastball of any starter in baseball ahead of guys like Beckett, AJ Burnett, and Felix Hernandez. This young flame thrower has also learned how to keep the ball in the yard allowing just 0.54 HR per nine and, as we discussed a day ago, the long ball is how the White Sox get on the board. There just isn't any reason to believe that the roster Chicago is currently working with should be able to get to Edwin Jackson for more than a couple runs. This price is far too good to pass on. The Runline at +142 is tempting but I won't push my luck; Tigers moneyline it is.

Now we move on to the biggest rivalry in the world, how many times can you beat a team and still wake up the following day and be an underdog against them? The Yanks aren't going to win in Boston. We have been over this more than enough, I would have settled for a cocker spaniel, but the books are offering me a doberman. I'll take the bigger dog any time and offer my kind regards.

Finally we have the Orioles against their former teammate Garrett Olson. If ever there was an example of a pitcher who made you wish you too were left handed, this is the guy. Garrett Olson speaks to the dreamer inside of all of us, the dreamer that says, what are you kidding me? I can do whatever it is that guy is doing. Give me a week to train and I'm trying out for the Mariners. The line does take into account the fact that Olson is terrible, and Seattle does have a talented Pen, but Uehara is well rested and the Os are a very solid home team. They have a lot of young bats who are over matched at times, but they should feast tomorrow. The Orioles rookie starter did not pitch every 5 days over in Japan so there has been some thought to moving him into the pen, but he will give you an excellent 5 innings almost every time out and for the reasons listed I will be taking the Orioles first five tomorrow. I will be doing so because after five innings of baseball, the Orioles will have more runs than the Mariners.